Investigator(s)
| Submitter |
Sherub Phuntsho University of Melbourne Sherub Phuntsho 
|
| Principal Investigator |
Sherub Phuntsho University of Melbourne Sherub Phuntsho
|
Title(s) and abstract
| Scientific title | Risk of entry and spread of Avian Influenza in Bhutan |
| Public title | Risk of entry and spread of Avian Influenza in Bhutan |
| Background | Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) has caused recurrent outbreaks in Bhutan since 2010. This study will identify risk factors for virus introduction and spread using spatial analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis, and AADIS modelling to support surveillance and outbreak preparedness.-how much character ? |
| Objectives | 1. Identify high-risk geographic areas for introduction of HPAI H5N1 into Bhutan and generate a national spatial risk map to guide surveillance. 2. Estimate how HPAI H5N1 could spread spatially and temporally across different farms and dzongkhags in Bhutan and map the hotspots of potential disease spread. |
| Study Methods | Expert elicitation will be used to weight key HPAI risk factors. Weighted spatial layers will be combined to generate an HPAI risk map, which will be used to parameterise AADIS simulations and assess how incursion location affects disease spread and control outcomes. |
| Expected outcomes and use of results | The study will generate HPAI hotspot maps and AADIS-based outbreak simulations to identify likely incursion areas, predict disease spread, evaluate control strategies, and support targeted surveillance, preparedness, and resource allocation in Bhutan. |
| Keywords | Spatial analysis, HPAI, Risk factor, MCDA, HAP |
Research Details
| Student research | Yes |
| Institution: University of Melbourne | |
| Academic degree: Master | |
| Supervisor of the student(s) | |
| Full Name and title: Mark Stevenson | |
| Email: mark.stevenson1@unimelb.edu.au | |
| Start Date | 01-Sep-2025 |
| End Date | 01-Sep-2027 |
| Key Implementing Institution | University of Melbourne |
| Multi-country research | No |
| Nationwide research | Yes |
| Research Domain(s) | Communicable Disease Research |
| Research field(s) | Infectious Disease |
| Involves human subjects | Yes |
| Qualitative Study | |
| Data Collection | Primary and secondary data |
| Proposal reviewed by other Committee | Approved |